Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS61 KCLE 060730
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary across central Ohio tonight
and Friday before pushing south Friday night and Saturday as
high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes. A warm front
will lift across the region Sunday and Sunday night as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will pull a cold
front across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It is currently cloudy with low stratus areawide with patchy
foggy early this morning as a stationary front remains over the
area. We were largely rain-free for a bit, though a few
isolated showers have started to pop up over the past hour or so
east and along I-77. Many hi-res models suggest we should see
an uptick in coverage of showers over the next few hours as a
subtle mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the west,
providing some forcing along with a little surface convergence
along and near the stationary front. Even though we`ve been
socked in, latest mesoanalysis suggests there is a little bit of
instability (on the order of ~500 MUCAPE J/kg), enough for at
least a slight chance of lightning with any showers that
develop.

Any early morning develop moves east towards the eastern part of
our forecast area by late morning, with additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping by early afternoon,
generally along and east of I-71. The setup looks eerily similar
to yesterday, in which we had a few weakly rotating storms
produce isolated wind damage. Should see around 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE with about 25 knots of deep-layer shear, marginally
supportive of isolated severe convection along and east of I-71.

The front finally pushes south as high pressure builds in from
the north tonight, with no precipitation expected tonight or
Saturday. Patchy fog may redevelop once again tonight, giving
way to mostly sunny skies on Saturday (aside from some clouds
building in from the south during the afternoon/evening hours).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave and associated weak surface reflection will lift east-
northeast out of the Ohio Valley and across the local area Saturday
night and Sunday, lifting the stalled front back north as a warm
front across the area late Saturday night into Sunday. This will
lead to a return of >60F dew points into Sunday along with potential
for showers/storms for the second half of the weekend. A larger
trough will dive into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes
Sunday into Monday, pushing a cold front southeast across the area
Monday into Monday night. There may be a relative lull in rain
chances Sunday night, before another increase in shower/storm
potential along and ahead of the cold front on Monday. While there
will be a bit more flow aloft on Sunday and especially Monday, which
could support organized convection, the amount of instability that
is able to return currently looks modest. This would keep the risk
for any severe weather Sunday into Monday on the lower side.

Lows Saturday night are expected to mainly range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s, perhaps a bit cooler east of I-79 in PA. Highs on
Sunday will likely be throttled a bit by cloud/rain potential,
mainly staying in the 70s but with increased humidity. Lows Sunday
night will be either side of 60, with highs Monday again in the mid
to upper 70s (with some dependence on the timing of rain). Lows
Monday night may trend slightly cooler, into the mid 50s to near
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The longwave trough that will push into the northern Great Lakes to
start the week will gradually open up/shear out while drifting into
the Northeast through midweek. The "cold pool" aloft will be in our
vicinity on Tuesday, which along with a secondary surface trough
could allow for a few showers/storms to develop on Tuesday. Coverage
will likely be lower than Sunday-Monday. Upper-level confluence
behind the departing trough moves overhead for Wednesday and
Thursday, allowing for surface high pressure and drier weather to
move in. Will need to monitor for isolated shower potential towards
Northwest PA on Wednesday still, in closer proximity to the
departing trough, though the forecast is dry for now with higher
confidence in dry weather west into Ohio. Heights begin rising for
the second half of next week, which will allow for a warming trend
to begin on Wednesday after a somewhat cooler than average
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Highly variable conditions are observed, anywhere from VFR, all
the way down to LIFR with 200 ft ceilings. In general,
conditions have been deteriorating and trending towards more
IFR/LIFR. Some BR is expected areawide in the 1-5SM range. There
could be a patchy fog, though it`s unlikely to impact TAF sites.

A few rain showers also remain, with some model guidance
suggesting an uptick in coverage with a slight chance for
thunderstorms after 09Z. This is very low confidence, so kept
VCSH at most TAF sites through this morning and afternoon. There
is a slightly better shot at a few thunderstorms near KCAK and
KYNG this afternoon, where a PROB30 was added.

Outside precipitation, conditions should tend to improve to
mostly MVFR by late this morning into the afternoon. There is
some uncertainty with timing of improvement, and especially for
this evening into tonight when confidence in
ceilings/visibilities is very low. Currently leaning towards the
00Z HREF with has improvements to VFR for most locations late
this evening into early tonight but uncertainty is high.

Light and variable winds overnight will gradually become more
northerly at 5-10 knots during the day today before becoming
light and variable again tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow over the lake this morning will shift more
northerly by tonight and into Saturday. Speeds will be under 15kt,
though could be just enough to build modest waves in the U.S. waters
given the onshore flow. A warm front will lift across the lake on
Sunday. Winds will shift more easterly Saturday night into early
Sunday, southeasterly on Sunday, and then more southwesterly by
Sunday evening. Speeds could reach about 15kt at times, building
some waves but in all likelihood not threatening the 4 foot small
craft criteria. Winds remain west-southwest at generally 15kt or
less through the first half of next week as a cold front and perhaps
secondary trough swing east across the lake. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorms over the lake today, with greater potential
inland. Some storms may be possible over the lake Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan